Fantasy Football Notebook
Tom Brady has thrown for 9,949 yards and 83 Touchdowns since arriving in Tampa Bay two years ago. Will father time or a change in receiving targets. (Mike Evans is the only returning starter at Wide Receiver or Tight End from a year ago) (Gronk in the Red Zone and how tough it was for defenses to defend BIG TARGETS like Gronk and Evans, plus trying to keep tabs on Godwin and Brown who were both excellent route runners with good hands and HIGH IQ on the same page with Tom Brady) The key with Brady is timing, rhythm, chemistry and trust. Numbers can always be spread out and duplicated but being on the same page and in sync with Tom is the key. Be where you're supposed to be when you're supposed to be there.
Since 2018, Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill have been one of the most prolific passing tandems in the NFL combining for 343 receptions, 4,854 yards and 43 Touchdowns. With Hill no longer on the team, how will that affect Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Value, especially since Mahomes and the Chiefs offense struggled for a good portion of last season, when defenses didn't allow for Kansas City to pick up huge chunk plays down the field.
Former Green Bay Wide Receiver Davante Adams (Las Vegas Raiders) had 581 receptions, 7,192 yards and 69 Touchdowns over the last 6 years, which roughly accounted for 35% of Quarterback Aaron Rodgers production. With Adams gone, should Rodgers still be considered an elite Fantasy Football Quarterback and how will the loss of Adams affect Rodgers overall production? Are Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson and Amari Rodgers along with Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan enough to get the job done.
New Denver Broncos Quarterback Russell Wilson has some serious adjustments to make. After spending the last 10 seasons in Seattle, Wilson now joins a new team which means. Getting familiar with and building chemistry with new players. As well as learning a new playbook and getting on the same page with a new Coaching Staff. Plus studying the new defenses he'll be facing in the AFC West. Wilson has averaged 3,773 passing yards with 33 TD passes over the last 5 years. Can he replicate those same numbers in Year 1 with Denver?
Did Lamar Jackson peak too soon and already reach his highest ceiling of potential for a single Fantasy Football season? Back in 2019, LJ8 put together one of the best Fantasy Football seasons that we've seen from a Quarterback. Lighting up defenses through the air with 36 Touchdown passes and also by writing his name in the NFL history books with 1,206 rushing yards. Since then, his numbers have been on a gradual decline. In 2020, Jackson threw for 10 less TD passes (26) but it was last season that really caught my attention. He only had two games in which he threw for more than 2 TD passes and only two games in which he threw for more than 300 yards, which resulted in 16 TD passes on the season, which were 10 less than the year before. Sure, everyone goes through a funk or tough stretch but in Jackson's last four games of 2021, he (along with the Ravens offense) struggled to have any success through the air. Jackson only had 3 TD passes with 6 Interceptions and it seemed like defenses figured something out. As Jackson enters his 5th season in Baltimore, there are more questions than answers. Where is Jackson's mind at since he wasn't able to reach a contract extension with the Ravens. Is the Ravens running game as strong as it once was with starting Running Back J.K. Dobbins and backup Gus Edwards both looking to return from ACL injuries that forced them to miss the entire 2021 season. Does Baltimore have enough weapons in the passing game for Lamar to succeed? Can Lamar Jackson run for 1,000 yards or 10 TDs to help offset production if the passing game continues to struggle?
New Orleans Quarterback Jameis Winston has shown us flashes of his Fantasy Football potential, but it's always been in short sample sizes or a sample size that we don't like. Last season as the Saints starter, Winston was off to a nice start with 14 TD passes and 3 INTs through 6 games, before suffering a season ending injury. Back in 2019, Winston became a rare member of the 5,000-yard passing club to go along with 30 TD passes but he also threw a League high 33 Interceptions. Coming into this season, Winston is on track to start for New Orleans and the table it set up for him to succeed with a talented cast on offense that features Running Backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Also, Wide Receivers Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave and Marquez Callaway. Can this be the year that Winston finally puts it all together?
The fact that Chicago Quarterback Justin Fields struggled as a Rookie last year doesn't bother me at all. Not making a comparison or saying that Fields' career will end the same, but we've seen All Time great Quarterbacks like Peyton Manning (28 INTs) and John Elway (7 TD passes / 14 INTs) look bad in their inaugural campaigns. I'm not overly thrilled about the Bears options in the passing game, and we'll have to wait and see if the Bears new offense is more catered to Fields' skill set. But the biggest question mark and determining factor for me is, how improved is the Bears Offensive Line?
Dallas Quarterback Dak Prescott has earned himself a spot inside of my Preseason Fantasy Football Quarterbacks Top 10 Rankings because of the work he's put in during his last two complete seasons in Dallas. (Missed 11 games due to injury in 2020) In 2019 Prescott passed for 4,902 yards with 30 TD passes and last year he threw for 4,449 yards and 37 Touchdowns. But with Wide Receivers Amari Cooper (Cleveland Browns) and Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Miami Dolphins) gone, plus the losses of starting Offensive Lineman Connor Wiliams (Miami Dolphins) and Tyron Smith (IR) is it realistic to think Prescott is still a 4,500-passing yard, 35 Touchdown pass Quarterback?
Second year Quarterback Trey Lance will be a full-time starter for San Francisco this season and his ceiling of potential is very high, when you consider all the weapons and pieces around him. If things go according to plan, expect for him to make a huge impact in Fantasy Football this season. He has one of the best offensive play callers in the League with Head Coach Kyle Shannahan. An Offensive Line that ended last season ranked #3. (Pro Football Focus) A consistent running game and high-end weapons in the passing game led by Pro Bowl Wide Receiver Deebo Samuel, Stud Tight End George Kittle and Wide Receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Lance also has the speed and athleticism to pick up yards and Touchdowns on the ground.
Philadelphia Quarterback Jalen Hurts is one of the more intriguing prospects coming into the 2022 Fantasy Football season. Last year, he only averaged 209 passing yards and 1 Touchdown pass per game. His 16 TD passes ranked 23rd in the League and made him irrelevant in terms of Fantasy Football. However, his 784 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs (1st amongst NFL Quarterbacks) held a lot of weight and catapulted him into the Top 10 Fantasy Quarterback Rankings at the end of last season. With Hurts entering his third year, things look very promising. He has developed chemistry with second year Wide Receiver DeVonta Smith and fifth year Tight End Dallas Goedert, plus the addition of Wide Receiver A.J. Brown gives him a big-time playmaker in the passing game. Which leaves two questions. Has Hurts developed enough as a passer to capitalize on what appears to be a good offense. Can you depend on Hurts running for 780+ yards and 10 TDs again?
Las Vegas Quarterback Derek Carr has had some really good seasons when it comes to Fantasy Football. Last season, Carr finished 5th in passing yards with 4,804 (300+ more yards on 20 less passing attempts than the 2021 Fantasy Quarterback points leader Josh Allen). There's also been three other seasons in which Carr has passed for more than 25 TD passes. (2015, 2016 and 2020) With the addition of All Pro Wide Receiver Davante Adams (123 receptions and 11 TDs in 2021 with Green Bay), to go along with Wide Receiver Hunter Renfrow (103 receptions and 9 TDs in 2021) and Tight End Darren Waller (107 catches and 9 TDs in 2020). Plus, an assumed upgrade in play calling (Las Vegas hired former New England Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels this Offseason) and a renewed confidence, the stars are aligned for Carr to have a huge season for Fantasy owners.
Miami Quarterback Tua Tungavailoa couldn't ask for a better situation. The Dolphins made massive upgrades to the offense in the Offseason, and they all benefit the third year Quarterback who should have something to prove. In addition to second year Wide Receiver Jalen Waddle (104 reception in 2021) and Tight End Mike Gesecki (73 catches for 780 yards in 2021), Miami signed one of the best Wide Receivers in the NFL Tyreek Hill (Kansas City) and Wide Receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Dallas). Miami also added Running Back Chase Edmonds and bolstered their Offensive Line with Terron Armstead (New Orleans) and Connor Williams (Dallas). With the table set, it's hard to imagine Tagovailoa coming up short once again, considering he only threw for 2,653 yards and 16 TDs last year.
Pittsburgh has named Mitchell Tribusky as their starting Quarterback to begin the 2022 season and that immediately elevates his Fantasy Football value. The Steelers offensive line is still a question mark (Pittsburgh struggled 5 new starters on the Offensive Line in 2021) but everything else is in place for Tribusky to excel this year. Second Year Running Back Najee Harris is excellent catching out of the Backfield (74 receptions in 2021), while Wide Receivers Dionte Johnson, Chase Claypool and George Pickens are excellent play makers. Second year Tight End Pat Freiermuth is also ready to make bigger contributions. (60 receptions and 7 TDs in 2021) Tribusky is also big and athletic with enough speed to rack up rushing yards and TDs.